CSP Markets Report - New Edition (2012-2013)
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Contents
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Introduction
1. Global CSP Industry Analysis
1.1. Current Status of the CSP Industry
1.2. CSP Industry Outlook
1.3. CSP Drivers and Barriers
1.4. Technology Alternatives
1.5. CSP Industry Review
1.5.1. Feed-in Tariff Moratorium in Spain
1.5.2. CSP Projects Switching to PV in the USA
1.5.3. End of the Loan Guarantee Program in the USA
1.5.4. Decrease in US Gas Prices – Shale Gas Boom
1.5.5. Indigenous Group Concerns and Environmental Issues in the USA
1.5.6. Abengoa’s Presence in the CSP Market
1.5.7. First Round of 500-MW Ouarzazate Complex in Morocco
1.5.8. Australia Moving Slower
1.5.9. Solar Millennium and Solar Trust of America File for Bankruptcy
1.5.10. TuNur by DESERTEC: Nur Energie plans 2 GW in Tunisia
1.5.11. UAE Committed to CSP
1.5.12. Saudi Arabia Targets 25 GW of CSP by 2032
1.5.13. South Africa: First Round Complete, Second Round Highly Subscribed
1.5.14. India Running Behind Schedule
1.5.15. PV Panels from China and Trade Issues with the USA
2. Global CSP Market
2.1. India
2.1.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.1.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.1.3. Local Market Insight
2.2. Saudi Arabia
2.2.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.2.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.2.3. Local Market Insight
2.3. USA
2.3.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.3.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.3.3. Local Market Insight
2.4. South Africa
2.4.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.4.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.4.3. Local Market Insight
2.5. Chile
2.5.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.5.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.5.3. Local Market Insight
2.6. Morocco
2.6.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.6.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.6.3. Local Market Insight
2.7. China
2.7.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.7.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.7.3. Local Market Insight
2.8. Australia
2.8.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.8.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.8.3. Local Market Insight
2.9. Algeria
2.9.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.9.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.9.3. Local Market Insight
2.10. Spain
2.10.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.10.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.10.3. Local Market Insight
2.11. United Arab Emirates
2.11.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.11.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.11.3. Local Market Insight
2.12. Tunisia
2.12.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.12.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.12.3. Local Market Insight
2.13. Egypt
2.13.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.13.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.13.3. Local Market Insight
2.14. Israel
2.14.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.14.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.14.3. Local Market Insight
2.15. Jordan
2.15.1. CSP-specific Policy and Electricity Market
2.15.2. CSP-specific Market Status
2.15.3. Local Market Insight
3. Market Forecast
3.1. Methodology
3.2. Forecasting Scenarios
3.3. Global Market Forecast
3.4. LCOE Forecast
3.5. CSP Market Forecast by Geographic Region
3.5.1. Spain
3.5.2. United States
3.5.3. India
3.5.4. MENA
3.5.5. South Africa
3.5.6. Asia Pacific
4. Conclusions
5. References
a) Optimistic Inclination
b) Conservative Inclination
c) Pessimistic Inclination
List of Figures
Figure 1: Main Milestones of the CSP Industry
Figure 2: Global Cumulative CSP Installed Capacity
Figure 3: Operating CSP Capacity (Q1 2012)
Figure 4: Top Developers of Operating Plants (Q1 2012)
Figure 5: CSP Capacity Under Construction (Q1 2012)
Figure 6: Top Developers of CSP Plans Under Construction
Figure 7: CSP Current and Future Revenue Distribution
Figure 8: CSP Growth Drivers
Figure 9: CSP Growth Barriers
Figure 10: Levelized Cost Comparison of Solar CSP and Conventional Power Towards Grid Parity (KPMG)
Figure 11: Power Sales Agreement Contract Structure in India
Figure 12: US Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard
Figure 13: US Energy Mix
Figure 14: US Grid Distribution Interconnects (US EIA [53])
Figure 15: NERC Regional Entities [53]
Figure 16: California Summer Daily Demand Curve [54]
Figure 17: Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub, EIA [53])
Figure 18: REIPPPP Allocation (MW) per Technology in South Africa
Figure 19: CSP MW Allocation According to IRP 2010-2030 [7]
Figure 20: Current IPP Procurement Program Structure in South Africa
Figure 21: Electricity Price Evolution in Chilean Grid* (CNE, CER [24])
Figure 22: Double PPA Structure Proposed in Morocco
Figure 23: CSP Electricity Management Structure in Morocco
Figure 25: Current Chinese Electricity Market
Figure 26: NEM Structure*
Figure 27: Installed Capacity in Spain (December 2011)
Figure 28: Distribution Utilities in Spain (Proyectos Tipo [50])
Figure 29: Electricity Market Structure
Figure 30: Spanish Winter Daily Demand Curve [51]
Figure 31: Spanish Summer Daily Demand Curve [51]
Figure 32: End-of-Year CSP Cumulative Capacity in Spain
Figure 33: IWPP Structure in UAE
Figure 34: Daily Electricity Demand (Source: IEC)
Figure 35: Jordan’s Single Buyer Model
Figure 36: Global Optimistic Market Forecast
Figure 37: Global Conservative Market Forecast
Figure 38: Global Pessimistic Market Forecast
Figure 39: Global CSP Forecast
Figure 40: CSP Market Segmentation by Installed Capacity [46]
Figure 41: Optimistic LCOE Reduction
Figure 42: Conservative LCOE Reduction
Figure 43: Pessimistic LCOE Reduction
Figure 44: Forecasted LCOE Reduction – All Scenarios
Figure 45: Global Optimistic Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
Figure 46: Global Conservative Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
Figure 47: Global Pessimistic Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
Figure 48: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in Spain
Figure 49: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in the USA
Figure 50: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in India
Figure 51: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in MENA
Figure 52: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in South Africa
Figure 53: Cumulative Installed Capacity in Asia Pacific
Figure 54: Forecast Strategic Factors
Figure 55: Technology Diffusion Lifecycle
Figure 56: CSP Market Indicators and Influential Factors
List of Tables
Table 1: CSP Market Technology Segmentation
Table 2: CSP Market Technology Segmentation (Under Construction)
Table 3: CSP Projects with Loan Guarantee Support (DOE)
Table 4: CSP Industry Project Pipeline Overview
Table 5: PPA Tariff Summary
Table 6: CSP Today Scorecard and Ranking
Table 7: Country overview: India
Table 8: Current Tariffs for Allocated CSP and PV Plants in India
Table 9: CSP Plants Under Operation in India
Table 10: CSP Plants Under Construction in India
Table 11: CSP Plants Announced and Under Development in India
Table 12: CSP Drivers and Barriers in India
Table 13: Country overview: Saudi Arabia
Table 14: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Saudi Arabia
Table 15: Country overview: the USA
Table 16: Federal and State Financing in High CSP Potential States
Table 17. RPS Summary in CSP Favorable States
Table 18: CSP Operating Plants in the USA
Table 19: CSP Plants Under Construction in the USA
Table 20: CSP Plants Under Development in the USA
Table 21: Announced CSP Plants in the USA
Table 22: CSP Drivers and Barriers in the USA
Table 23: Country overview: South Africa
Table 24: CSP Projects Announced as Preferred Bidders in the First and Second Rounds of the REIPPPP
Table 25: CSP Plants Announced and Under Development in South Africa
Table 26: CSP Drivers and Barriers in South Africa
Table 27: Country overview: Chile
Table 28: CSP Plants Under Construction in Chile
Table 29: CSP Plants Under Development in Chile
Table 30: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Chile
Table 31: Country overview: Morocco
Table 32: Distribution of Responsibilities in Morocco [56]
Table 33: CSP Plants in Operation, Development and Announced in Morocco
Table 34: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Morocco
Table 35: Country overview: China
Table 36: CSP Projects Under Operation in China
Table 37: CSP Projects Under Construction in China
Table 38: CSP Projects Announced and Under Development in China
Table 39: CSP Drivers and Barriers in China
Table 40: Country overview: Australia
Table 41: CSP Plants in Operation, Development and Announced in Australia
Table 42: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Australia
Table 43: Country overview: Algeria
Table 44: CSP Plants Announced in Algeria
Table 45: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Algeria
Table 46: Country overview: Spain
Table 47: CSP Operating Plants in Spain
Table 48: CSP Plants Under Construction in Spain
Table 49: CSP Plants Under Development in Spain
Table 50: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Spain
Table 51: Country overview: the UAE
Table 52: CSP Drivers and Barriers in UAE
Table 53: Country overview: Tunisia
Table 54: CSP Plants Announced in Tunisia
Table 55: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Tunisia
Table 56: Country overview: Egypt
Table 57: CSP Plants Announced in Egypt
Table 58: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Egypt
Table 59: Country overview: Israel
Table 60: CSP Plants in Operation, Under Development and Announced in Israel
Table 61: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Israel
Table 62: Country overview: Jordan
Table 63: CSP Plants Under Development and Announced in Jordan
Table 64: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Jordan
Table 65: Market Forecast Summary
Table 65: Primary CSP Market Growth Drivers in Model
Table 66: Overall CSP Progress Rate [46]
Table 67: Scorecard Countries
Table 69: CSP Installed Capacity Forecast Summary
Table 69: Influencing Factors for CSP Development
Table 70: High Impact Decision Points
Table 71: Factor Ranking System
Table 72: Survey-based Indicator Weights
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CSP Markets Report - New Edition (2012-2013)
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